Scientist Creates a Tool: East Africa’s Devastating locusts

During the last week in the northwest counties of Marsabit and Turkana, mature swarms in Kenya, migrated northward to lay eggs.  So far there have been just some hatching and a few hopper bands. Swarms have decreased in the south in Ethiopia because of their control and reproduction, as mature swarms have migrated to the northeast (Afar) and eastern (Somali) regions. In neighbouring Somalia, as well as in adjacent regions, the hopper bands continued to mature. In South Sudan, a few hopper bands are forming, in the southeast near Torit.

With heavy precipitation in March and April, which provides perfect conditions for a further wave of crab breeding operations, the authorities are desperate for any information they need to plan for possible threats. As a massive rise in desert cribs devastates East Africa, scientists use a sophisticated air pollution model to forecast where the wind is whipped up by the destructive pests and where the pests will strike next.

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Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have now teamed up with Keith Cressman, the FAO Senior Field Predictors, to develop a web app to plan where the wind is going to blow locusts on a flight. The app is powered by an HYSPLIT atmosphere model. In addition to integrating model findings in FAO’s desert cradle updates, Cressman is already using the app to inform risk countries about locust threats.

This software reflects a new application of HYSPLIT, which is widely used by scientists to consider the distribution and dispersion of atmospheric contaminant particles, whether it is soot from a power plant or ash from a volcanic eruption. The model can be implemented in time using data from the NOAA global forecast system and other weather prediction models in order to learn where pollution is heading.

The model can be reverted using data from the weather reconstruction technique called reanalysis in order to determine from which pollution was generated. HYSPLIT can be used in practice to monitor anything transported via air, even locust which, according to Cressman, are ‘passive fliers.’ The insects are carried away to the wind and fly up to 93 miles a day.

Cressman used HYSPLIT many years ago to predict where the locust swarm went, based on the observations made on the ground. But as the crises of East Africa escalated last winter, Cressman realized that he would be much more effective in using the model if the model was modified to take into account some odd aspects of savage behaviour.

The Director-General has released FAO’s progress report on the locust control campaign in East Africa and Yemen, which stated that, given the limitations arising from COVID-19 and other obstacles, the UN agency had continued its surveillance and control operations.

The FAO mandate focuses on desert locust tracking, forecasting and control. The Desert Locust Information Service has almost 50 years in action. FAO has an established presence in the area, its ability to link authorities from different countries, and its expertise in managing and forecasting desert locusts, making it a key player in response to upheavals like the one affecting East Africa and the Red Sea region at present.

Data Source: FAO and NOAA