Mauritania’s economy is projected to grow at 4.2% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025, driven by gas production exports expected to commence in late 2024, generating estimated annual revenues of approximately $500 million from 2024 to 2051.
With a sustained restrictive monetary policy and favorable agricultural outlook, inflation is expected to stabilize at 4.7% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025.
The budget deficit is projected to narrow to 2% of GDP in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025, driven by additional revenue from the gas sector.
In the near term, public debt is projected to decrease, maintaining a moderate risk of debt distress. The current account deficit is expected to improve to 8.5% of GDP in 2024 and 7.4% in 2025, thanks to increased gas exports and reduced import bills for food and oil.
Structural transformation has been sluggish, largely due to an economic model reliant on extractive resources. The share of manufacturing in GDP declined from 10.4% in 2000 to 6.5% in 2022, while agriculture’s share contracted from 26.1% to 23.2%.
The service sector dominates the economy, accounting for 46% of GDP in 2022, up from 42.4% in 2000.
In terms of employment, agriculture’s share decreased from 44.8% to 33%, and industry’s share slightly dropped from 15.3% to 14.7%, with a significant shift towards informal services (52.3%, up from 39.9%).
To further support Mauritania’s economic growth, development partners can assist with its sovereign credit rating process, which is essential for issuing debt on global markets, and increase concessional funding.
